As a fairly mainstream Israeli, I would suggest that these would be very incorrect conclusions for the countries of the region to draw. It just isn’t true that Israel is “focused purely on brutal domination of its neighbors with no respect for their lives or sovereignty”. We aren’t brutally dominating all of our neighbors or disrespecting their lives and sovereignty. This brutal treatment is reserved for those neighbors who are themselves brutal towards us and have spent decades threatening to kill us and doing everything they can to actualize those threats.
Israel isn't just randomly attacking states in the region for wanting to be sovereign or for having capacity. The fact is that countries who don’t spend decades attacking us are not under any kind of threat from Israel and never have been. Instead, Israel supplies them with 5-10% of their water in the case of Jordan, ~1/6 of their gas needs in the case of Egypt and billions of dollars of trade in the cases of Turkey and the UAE. Even Qatar has enjoyed importing our military and cyber technology (I wish this wasn’t true but it is was it is).
And it isn’t even true that Israel won’t allow these Muslim-majority countries to have the military capacity to threaten them. Turkey and Egypt already do, and have been massively building these capacities up over the years without any serious objection or opposition from Israel. Israel hasn't done anything to threaten either of their sovereignties or engaged in any conflict with them even in light of these buildups. All of this evidence undermines your thesis.
In reality, all the countries in the region have to do to avoid the Iran treatment is: 1. Not constantly threaten to kill us; and 2. Not actually try to kill us. The rhetoric of Turkey and Egypt over the years show that we will even compromise on 1. These things shouldn’t be too hard.
At the end of the day Iran and the "Axis of Resistance" have, in their different adventures in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, killed at least 5x more Arabs and Muslims than Israel ever has. They have played a major role in destabilizing and/or destroying these Arab countries. It is probably too much to ask that the people of the region thank us for defanging this threat that hurt them as much as it hurt us. But maybe, instead of working towards another round of civilizational conflict in 5-10 years, they should consider just taking the novel approach of not fighting us?
Unfortunately if you look at countries like Egypt, Jordan, and the GCC that have normal ties with Israel they are simply not sovereign. Let’s leave aside the absence of popular sovereignty and hostility to that which emerged during the Arab Spring and look merely at the material facts. The Egyptian F-16s operated by their Air Force are neutered of air-to-air capabilities by the U.S. and the same is believed for Jordan’s smaller Air Force as well. Most GCC defenses are run by U.S. advisors and they have limited sovereign control over there. These are countries under the U.S.-Israel hegemonic defense umbrella and when push comes to shove they are unable to actually provide their own security and Israel can veto it if need be. This is actually a legal requirement from Congress under the Israeli QME provision.
The countries in the Middle East that are sovereign are Turkey since the failed 2016 coup, and Iran, whose sovereignty is now under attack and being degraded. Everyone notices this and understands they are chafing under a very ruthless and tyrannical hegemony. The non-sovereign states by nature are doomed in the long-term and the struggle for sovereignty is also a struggle against Israel and its backers. That said is it possible to “flip” at least some Israelis and get them on the side of the region in the long-term? Yes I think so every society has divisions.
By that definition Israel isn't sovereign either. Those countries, like us, have decided that it is worth it to trade some of their independence in exchange for the benefits of being under the US umbrella, like foreign aid, weapons, US troops based in their country, etc. You say they are chaffing and that the US-Israeli system is tyrannizing them – but what is this tyranny exactly? What would these countries like to do (other than fight Israel) that the current alliance system prevents them from doing?
But anyway you haven’t addressed my main point. You say that Israel has some kind of doctrine to preemptively attack countries either to prevent them from having capabilities or from being sovereign, regardless of the current state of relations. Therefore, all the Muslim and Arab countries need to prepare to fight Israel because it is a mortal threat to them. I think this is wrong – Israel hasn’t done anything resembling this to anyone that wasn’t overtly and actively hostile, and we would almost certainly leave alone any country that wanted to be sovereign or have capabilities without attacking us.
I pointed to all the Arab and Muslim countries that we have trading relationships and provide national resources to - you say they don’t count because they are US vassals. Fine, although that already cuts against your point that Israel has a 0% threat deterrence policy, as it is fine with various threatening capabilities going to its co-vassals. But Iran doesn't prove your point either, as that is a case of extreme and active hostility.
So it looks like Turkey is the best test case – you agree that they are sovereign for at least the last decade or so, and they have only been somewhat hostile, and sporadically at that. And the fact of the matter is that there has been no serious Israeli effort to stop them from being sovereign or do anything else to them (other than buying their products). And whenever Erdogan has cooled off his rhetoric the countries have gone back to cooperating in trade and other areas. So the available evidence shows that a sovereign, non-hostile Muslim state doesn't have any rational reason to view Israel as a threat.
I can think of two main reasons why the other Middle Eastern countries would want to participate in your posited future civilizational war. One is that they hate us because of Gaza and want to intervene and get us out of the region as vengeance/justice or something along those lines. I guess I can understand that, but I don’t think it was the main argument you made. The second, and what I took from your piece, is that they believe we are a threat to them even if they aren’t hostile and don’t do anything to us. That isn’t really supported by any evidence and it would be a bad miscalculation for them to think that way.
Well if you look at it in context its a far more attractive arrangement for Israel. They get to enjoy a U.S. guaranteed QME and all sorts of other emergency assistance (we are seeing today) as well as permanent diplomatic and economic support for whatever policies the government may want to pursue regardless of how unpopular or controversial globally. Who could scoff at that?
Regarding paragraph 3 that was not my argument, these countries are specifically denied any capacities that could threaten their ostensible co-vassal which is why the arrangement is viewed as inequitable or dangerous. This is why Egypt held joint military exercises for the first time with China in April and wants to start purchasing its aircraft as there is a fear that U.S. equipment that might be employed against Israel would be rendered inoperable.
Regarding Turkey, we shall see. But aside from mutual recriminations and threats between Turkish and Israeli officials, Israel has already commissioned studies gaming out conflict with Turkey as an inevitability for the reasons that I identified (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362). I think they are likely right. But I should also add that I have a tragic/realist view of the world in general in which I assume conflict to be the normal state of affairs rather than peace. If someone had a different baseline assumption they would probably view my outlook as overly negative. I do not really factor emotional sentiments, desires for revenge etc. into my analysis per se although they undeniably play a role.
It is difficult to feel sorry for Egypt and Jordan for having less military capacity and be limited as to how much they can harm Israel. Excuse me, there are real problems in the world. These countries can concentrate on dealing with their problems and providing better lives for there people. It appears that you think that limiting their ability to attack Israel is an infringement of their rights. Enabling such capacities is an infringement on Israel’s right to exist. Israel does not threaten them if they don’t threaten Israel
I’m sorry but Israel’s existence is dependent on their Arab neighbors being constantly under siege by US intervention. Over the last century, the West has consistently supported autocratic regimes so America’s aircraft carrier in the Middle East—Israel—could continue to exist. There is a reason Israel is the only “democracy” in the Middle East. Israel is entirely incapable of standing on their own two feet.
In addition to what I wrote below I wish to add that your ignorant condescending assertion that it is America’s fault that these Arab countries are nasty autocratic dictatorships is an expression of a colonialist ignorance and lack of respect for these Moslem countries you claim
To have sympathy for. Really? You think their culture and mentality is the result of American imperialism? Allow me to inform reveal
To you that these people had the same stinking autocratic cruel racist way of life and government before they ever heard of America. You are so self centred that you think everything is about you? Grow up and learn about Moslem history ideology and culture and find out what you are defending
Your existence is also unpleasant for me. Bitter ignorant young people looking for somebody to blame for their failures and shortcomings, impotent, incapable of rational thought, ignorant and nasty. Unlike you, I do not support killing your sort off, as you wish for Israelis. I know you will just sink when we flush
Well, it is certainly a very special “genocide” because the population of Gaza has even grown during this war, not to mention that it has has grown four fold in 70 years so that is one hell if an amazing genocide. How do you feel? Is your head heavy with phoney tick tock posts? Muddled with distortions and lies? I suggest taking a rest, maybe lie down
Well, I never called it that if you read my comment. It is, however, a theocratic ethno-state that is conducting a genocide. I visited Israel as an American in 2019 and did not have a good experience
Gee not having a nice experience in Israel is such an excellent reason to support fundamentalist Islamic armies whose biggest aspiration is to kill
Everybody there. Maybe you should visit Afghanistan, Yemen, Gaza, and Iran in search of a wonderful humanitarian country. Or talk to refugees from those countries in
Order to learn more about the great humanistic regimes they escaped from.
What siege? Is Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia are under siege? You think it’s fine for Iran and its proxies to attack Israel because they want to and they deserve “autonomy”, meaning they should be allowed to do whatever they want? And if Sweden is under threat from Russia, the world should respect Russia’s desires and let them slaughter all the Swedes? Israel has stood on its own for 77 yrs. There are American interests in the middle east which it is protecting. You think enabling a murderous Islamic republic to what it wants is in your interests?
How I appreciate the original thoughtful post and counterpoint discussion by Murtaza and Ben. (And how little insight in the later comments, unfortunately).
I think the original post is built on a war-as-central stance, which makes me mostly disagree with it. Territorial conquest doesn’t motivate publics or kings anymore, with a few exceptions. A fractured Iran would be a nightmare for all, the US included. And I think powerful people in the US know this, based on our bungled project in Iraq.
I also don’t think the US is a major problem for most Arab countries…. Rather I think those governments like to blame problems on US domination rather than admit their own failures. Agreed with Ben: when others don’t use Israel as an enemy, it seems things work out OK.
With that said, Israel playing a strong hand today can lead to unintended consequences tomorrow. Young people in the US are now anti-Israel in massive proportions, and have locked that sentiment in their worldviews as they watch starving Palestinians on TV. The old pro-Israel crowd is fading away. The time may soon come when a pro-Israel stance is odious and embarrassing to the average American.
I myself had once cited ‘shared values’ as a tie that binds the US and Israel together. I feel less that way after watching Israel’s behavior in Gaza, even if provoked by prior behavior from Hamas. I value compassion and so do most Americans, despite our violent reputation. Israel shouldn’t count on my teenage children to vote for pro-Israel politicians. Indeed, as time passes we should all expect the opposite.
I agree that Israel is now being unnecessarily cruel and that should stop. However their enemies are fundamentalist Islamics. Supporting them is supporting their colonialist cruelty aspirations which in the long run will definitely harm western culture. They use the humanitarian values to further their own insidious goals
I have clear eyes about government of Iran, and their militant proxies surrounding Israel. These are bad actors on the world stage… beyond bad in some cases. In general they deserve what they get. I also see how especially Hamas manipulates opinion by hiding behind civilians, skimming/stealing aggressively from civilian foreign aid, etc. It’s all terrible.
From one viewpoint, Israel is just winning a war that it didn’t ask for.
But. Israel is also aggressively pushing people off their land in the West Bank, firing guns into crowds hungry civilians, and withholding food from starving children. These are acts of revenge and hatred. And they’re wrong. No matter how provoked, no matter Oct 7, no matter the insidious behaviors of Hamas. Wrong is wrong. And I think most Israelis know it.
Israel is traveling a slow-motion path to global pariah state. The US public will increasingly view Israel as such unless it changes course. I don’t say that to agree or disagree; I am just reading the scoreboard and calling the game as I see it.
I agree with you. I don't think it's just revenge. Those who attack innocent farmers in the West Bank represent an insane messianic stream and musst be arrested as terrorists. There is a huge public argument about this. MOst Israelis condemn it, as I do. At this point these evil nuts are even attacking the IDF. However, the reason this should be stopped is because it is wrong and evil, not because we should be afraid of what people think about us. was Germany made a pariah state after the Holocaust? Is Turkey a pariah state because of their treatment of Kurds and Armenians? Are Jews meant to be afraid of what people say about them forever? We should be good people because that is what human beings should be, not because of fear. I believe the distortions and lies will eventually become evident. Also israel has too much to offer to be boycotted forever. And those students with the Kaffeyas and green head bands will eventually grow up. Because Europe is innundated with Arabs, the hostility towards Israelis, in places like Britan is that there are lots of moslems whose votes politicans want. Let's hope this horror show ends soon and we isrealis manage to get rid of Bibi.
Now in this reply, I speak purely as pragmatist and not as one judging who is right or wrong (a thing I am not well qualified to do).
There’s only one time to be afraid of what others think. That time is when those others are propping you up militarily and on the world stage.
Bibi’s calculates he must fight hard everywhere while he has the upper hand, and that he (+ others) can sort the long term later. There’s a chance he’s right. If you Israelis can vote Bibi out, keep your boot heel on Hamas’ neck, and make durable peace with something fair for West Bank Palestinians, then he will be vindicated. Israel could be powerful, at peace, with enemies vanquished all around. Sounds nice.
But I think it’s more likely that the brutalized children will grow into radicalized adults, keep fighting you with terrorism, and keep losing the war in future generations. Gaza is still smoldering wreckage next door. Bibi will be replaced by the next Bibi and Israeli people will continue to hold their nose about their own radicals, and keep on fighting. In this scenario, Bibi is remembered as nothing more than one more warmonger. And what I’m trying to point out is: in that scenario, I would estimate that the US no longer protects Israel, in the UN or in general. Israel becomes a pariah state in such a scenario.
I hope not. Israel has a lot of good things going for it; some great things actually. But this path is a major risk for Israel. THE major risk, in my opinion.
We shall soon know how things work out. There is talk of including Syria and Lebanon in the Abraham Accords, enshalla. I used to think the problem was how we treated the people in the West Bank, but I have come to realize the issues are much wider. Of course the people in the West Bank should have better lives but the big issue is Islamic Fundamentalism. WE in Israel and the Palestinians are pawns in a much larger struggle.It seems to me that this conflict can only be resolved over our heads, by more powerful forces. None of Israelis previous regimes were as suicidal as Bib's present government and there will somehow be an end to his vicious tactics. There is hope that he will be deposed. Israelis are out in the streets every day and shouting in the knesset. The Palestinians are also dependent on outside support, like Israel and among them there are also saner voices. At this point we are all suffering from trauma and have begun to persecute our own people as well as what are considered our enemies. Somehow the situation will shift and let's hope improves.
Now you send me this report of what an employee if radical Islamists says? Haha. You think this is truth? You might learn or not, just join them, they promise 72 virgins if you die killing Jews
Yeah we have many opinions in Israel and we don’t kill people we disagree with like the Arabs do so they are free to express their opinions. This is a feature of democracy, which although threatened in Israel, is still much better than anything you find in a Moslem country. You use our open Minds and freedom of expression to support your criminal aspirations.
Of course there are many casualties in Gaza of the war they started, unprovoked, when they were swimming in money from Qatar, getting free health and education from UNWRA, free electricity and water from Israel. But they had their big dream of killing all the Israelis, burning babies and raping and mutilating, so surprise surprise, Israel responded and since they hide in hospitals and schools, using their people as human shields, they have many casualties. A genocide us what they aspired to achieve but typically if them, they commit crimes and then claim
They are victims of the crimes they commit. So no genocide. A war they lost. Maybe they should try using the billions they get to build their economy as they promised and taking care of their people. A little birthday control could also be useful for them because all they do is have children and try to kill Israelis. They should try other activities
I can see that you are not one to actually make any effort to understand the situation in Gaza. You are what they call a bleeding heart. Oh, babies are dying, quick let's blame somebody. I honestly regret that people in Gaza are suffering but that does not mean that I think it's ok to attack and rape mutilate, murder and kidnap my people. Yes, it's probabl a good idea for israel to stop the war in Gaza and get our poor starved and abused hostages back but this war was provoked by Palestinian leaders who say things like: We have no problem with 50,000 dead, we can make new people, no problem. They encourage a high brith rate so that they can have lots of "martyrs". This is what they actually say. Even when one is in a profession that is devoted to helping people, one need not be suicidal and relinquish the capacity for rational thought.
There is a lot of criticism of the present Israeli government which I agree with, but you infer from this that Israel is evil and has no right to exist. That those who are at war with Israel somehow, because they are "victims" justice is with them. No. it is possible to be miserable and still be wrong. The Palestinian leaders are living in fancy hotels in Qatar, using the billions contributed to their people while they let their people suffer. They steal their aid in order to have those wonderful starving people photos. They have warehouses full of food they deny their people. Now that food is being distributed by the alternative American aid group, they started giving out food themselves. Starvation is how they stay in power, so long as they have control of the food, which is what they had. They would steal the aid trucks, with the help of their buddies in UNRWA and then sell it for exorbitant prices and then use the money they made to pay their operatives so Gaza people had no choice but to work for them. i can see that it is not just the military aid that bothers you, youo just don't like Israel, admit it. And denying Israel's right to exist is in fact racist. Do you also think Russia doesn't have the right to exist because they attacked Ukraine? Or China because they abuse their people? Or Yemen where half the population starved the other half, causing a million deaths? Or Sudan where over a million people have already been slaughtered?
I follow your writings which are often insightful, but this reads like a lot of wishful thinking. I don’t know much about the current sentiment in Iran, but during the war with Lebanon I followed Lebanese social media. It was quite evident that while no one there loves Israel, they mostly recognized that Hezbollas’ recklessness brought this war upon them and that they would have never been touched by Israel if they would have left Israel alone. I believe the same is understood by all people in the region. Iran is suffering for its own aggression against Israel. Countries at peace with Israel know they have no reason to fear Israel.
It’s too soon to say where the current war with Iran is expected to go. But if the Iranians buckle and drink the poison chalice, this will in all likelihood mark the end of radical nihilist militancy in the region. It is just as likely that Israel will reach peace agreements with Lebanon and Syria. As regards the Palestinian issue, the demographic headwinds are now on Israel’s side for the decades to come. The Gaza war will end sooner or later. Many Palestinians who can, will move out of Gaza. Many Jews from the diaspora will move to Israel. With Hamas type militancy fully discredited, Palestinians will pursue a more constructive path. Either they will manage to secure a mini-state in the West Bank by diplomacy, or there will be one state with cultural autonomy for the Palestinians and a path to citizenship for those willing to take an oath of loyalty to the State of Israel. A decade from now, when the passions and the propaganda will subside, people will look back at this period and see very clearly how all this started and how it ended.
That may be, but in history you have brief periods of intense war followed by prolonged peace. The Arab Israeli wars between 1967 and 1973 brought about prolonged peace with the Arab sates abandoning the idea of eliminating Israel through war. It also brought forth the idea that Israel might be worn down by non-sate actors and the ballistic missile threat. The failure of this strategy has been spectacularly demonstrated over the past two years. Will the result now be a resumption of the state level threat? It doesn't have to be.
It depends on political outlook in Israel. If they continue to embrace a 0% doctrine of deterrence post-October 7 then of course others will find it intolerable even if they prefer not to have wars. It will be as though the entire region lived under foreign occupation such that all their defense capacities are neutered below the level of sovereignty. The statements of Israeli officials these days are very eye opening and it would be malpractice to ignore them. Likewise Erdogan and others are also making highly alarmed and extreme statements.
your a jewish supremacist who simply views the natives of the middle east as uncivilised and badly behaved - all your analysis stems from this assumption
Please keep an eye on Africa in all this. Please, please, please. The oil...the oil...the oil... the oil... Sahel is the new "epicenter of terrorism" but we just had to bomb Somalia and now Iran is a target. 20 billion barrels of oil in Turkey's hands through this Somalia deal. They're aiming at a lot of birds with this stone.
I agree that Israel is now radical and seeking complete regional dominance, particularly over all Muslim countries. However, many of these countries have their own ambitions and will actively work to assert their influence. They are determined to shape their own future—independently—and will not accept Israel or any other power dictating their path.
You have not addressed the growth of messianic Zionism, Jewish in Israel, Christian in the US. On Jerusalem Day Smotrich said: נזכה בהרחבת גבולות ישראל,
, ובנין בית המקדש בקרוב במהרה בימינו. ״ א
« We will achieve the expansion of Israel’s border,complete redemption, and the building of the Holy Temple soon quickly in our days. » this is not an « underground » personality. He and his fellow messianic enthusiast Ben Gvir are what keeps Netanyahu in power, and the US ambassador, Mike Huckabee, also promotes messianic policies. This could change everything. I
As an aside, that’s why the China/Russia relationship was never a serious threat—China wants to develop military industrial capacity for themselves and not rely on Russian weapons. So China imports value added manufacturing with the goal of reverse engineering the technology and developing the industry for themselves. In the end the Middle Kingdom only wants grain and energy from a trade partner. And with respect to energy oil is so 2008 and LNG is the key to the future and China is building huge natural gas storage infrastructure to complement their huge hydro dams and so hydro dams also act as natural gas storage infrastructure
Thank you, Murtaza. You are very thoughtful with this.
My gut feeling is that what is animating such destructive behaviour by the west is actually a collective mental illness. Neurotics build dream castles, and psychotics live in them. Western politicrats are exhibiting various degrees of both.
Netanyahu reminds me more and more of the Reverend Jim Jones.
I don’t see what elites (or ordinary people) in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia have to gain from conflict with Israel. I also don’t see what Israel has to gain from conflict with those states either. So I am not sure why those countries should be preparing for war with Israel. Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular have militaries which I believe are more capable than those of Iran. So if it was to their advantage to fight Israel, why haven’t they already done so? Also, if it was to their advantage for the Palestinians to fight the Israeli’s, why weren’t they the major patrons of Hamas, instead of allowing one of their chief rivals to have that kind of influence in Gaza? My understanding is that most states in the Middle East actually support Israel, though they cannot say this aloud because Israel is so unpopular among their populace. But why would Saudi Arabia’s leaders object to watching bombs rain down upon a hated rival? Why would Lebanese leaders object to the killing of the leaders of a militant separatist minority? How does any of what Israel does touch upon the core interests of Turkey’s leadership? Why do any of them (except maybe Egypt) really care about what happens in Gaza? How does that impinge upon their own power (ie the power of the elites of in Middle Eastern countries)?
This isn’t meant as a defense of Israel, just more an attempt to understand what you are arguing. Right now it looks to me like Israel is fighting a war in Gaza that Middle Eastern leaders don’t really care about, occupying territory in Syria that those leaders don’t appear to care much about, and have been fighting against Iran and Iranian proxies, which many leaders in the region may be quite happy about. Is Israel going to attack Egypt, or Jordan, or Turkey, or Saudi Arabia?
There’s a mutual problem as I mentioned. Israelis don’t want any of their neighbors to be fully sovereign which means they can’t have defense technology that is actually effective in deterring all enemies including them. So a conflict is inevitable. And this leaves aside the civilizational reasons and deep mutual hatred and suspicion.
Would Israel realistically go to war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons? Netanyahu might want to do that, but I think he would quickly be ousted from office if he started saying very clearly that Israel would go to war with those countries. Israel is only fighting against nations that don’t have allies. Turkey is part of NATO, and KSA is de facto part of NATO.
On potential future conflicts: 1) Egypt has already tried striking at Israel and lost badly. 2) Pakistan is in no shape to enter a conflict with such a distant nation, and it is not clear why it would even want to fight Israel unless it is deeply infected with the same ideological rot as the Iranian regime which you so neatly describe in this piece. 3) Turkey is the real deal, Israelis need to be careful to get on their good side. 4) China won’t support any of the three above in any conflict, except maybe Pakistan against their common enemy India. If the Chinese won’t lift a finger to help Iran who sells them oil at a very favorable price, then why would they even consider stepping in to any future conflict between any of these three countries and Israel?
China has no strategic relation at all with Iran. They have a commercial relationship and Iran has actually rejected Chinese efforts to build strategic ties with Beijing because it wanted to reintegrate with the West instead. Every Islamic country hates Israel at this point and the sentiment is mutual (I don’t mean as individuals on either side but let’s merely look at official statements). Pakistanis rightly see Israel as a threat despite its distance and Netanyahu himself has said that Pakistan’s nuclear program is a danger to Israel. That said they have intelligence level dialogue that keeps things at a truce for now. Definitely you will see more wars in future and Turkey is obviously a central part of it (they are close allies of Pakistan). Regarding Egypt the mid-level officer class all reviles Camp David and are disgusted by the Gaza situation.
This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs. But this is refuted by our own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Someone's lying.
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you're just not very smart, Richard. For reference, here's the first sentence on wikipedia's article on Iran's nuclear program:
"The nuclear program of Iran is one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world. Although the Iranian government maintains that the purpose is for civilian and peaceful uses, some have claimed that they are covertly developing nuclear weapons..."
You're wandering all over, and I'm not sure why. My statement is, "This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs." If you disagree, tell me why. Otherwise go away.
Grim piece. Can we get a Part 2 that expands on the signs pointing towards an inevitable "Civilizational War" that, as some have pointed out, will likely take aim next at Turkey?
Many have pointed to Turkey's recent advantages as possible building blocks for constructing the centre of an updated Muslim civilization that fills some of the void left by waning Western universalism and post-war liberalism. Is this what the upcoming Reconquista is taking aim at, beyond ensuring Israeli regional dominance?
I feel like sketching out some clear features of the emerging "Civilizational War" might help people understand the gravity of what you say will inevitably happen. If Crusader Israel does go on to pick fights with Muslim majority countries in the region, either one by one or simultaneously, then the sheer magnitude of such a broad conflict might trigger even wider effects that fuel a WW3 scenario?
The portrayal of Israel as a “new Israel” focused on domination and disregarding civilian lives in Iran and Palestine underscores how far the conflict has escalated beyond traditional deterrence, feeding into a cycle of violence that makes peaceful resolution ever more difficult.
On the surface your analysis seems rational and thoughtful. However you lack the wisdom insights that’s not obvious to the rational mind. In fact much of Irans actions are very wise, risk managed and they’ve won a bigger prize than is obvious now. The axis of Resistance is core to a profound shift in the worlds rising consciousness & exposing the deception lies and plots post ww1 and the order established post ww2. We live in interesting times and Israel & Zionist/ western hegemony & all its vassals, like India, stand exposed now. The Sunni Muslim states in ME, Turkey and Turkistan states are hedging but all is not as it seems. Neither is Donald Trump. So your analysis will have its revision when the time comes.
You should feed Claude and a few AI questions and see how its geopolitics analysts pans out.
The biggest revelation of this war imo is Israel's intelligence and technological capabilities. Reading through the list of senior military leaders and nuclear scientists who were killed on June 13th is sobering, not least because it proved that the succesful decapitation of Hezbollah months before was no fluke. Those who oppose Israel can reassure themselves of the country's small size and small population, but I fear we are entering an age where having insurmountable advantage in intelligence and technology can cancel out such a disadvantage. Israel can kill your military elite, can kill whoever replaces a week later. I've yet to see anyone truly grapple with the consequences of this.
Israel's has clearly demonstrated it has no intention to integrate into the region. It's plan is to dominate it, and to do so indefinitely. What doesn't make sense about this decision is the timing. Israel cannot count on the MENA being weak and dysfunctional forever. It also can't count on fanatical US support forever. In fact both are likely to end long before the end of the century. So what exactly is their long term vision? Do we simply lack the imagination?
As a fairly mainstream Israeli, I would suggest that these would be very incorrect conclusions for the countries of the region to draw. It just isn’t true that Israel is “focused purely on brutal domination of its neighbors with no respect for their lives or sovereignty”. We aren’t brutally dominating all of our neighbors or disrespecting their lives and sovereignty. This brutal treatment is reserved for those neighbors who are themselves brutal towards us and have spent decades threatening to kill us and doing everything they can to actualize those threats.
Israel isn't just randomly attacking states in the region for wanting to be sovereign or for having capacity. The fact is that countries who don’t spend decades attacking us are not under any kind of threat from Israel and never have been. Instead, Israel supplies them with 5-10% of their water in the case of Jordan, ~1/6 of their gas needs in the case of Egypt and billions of dollars of trade in the cases of Turkey and the UAE. Even Qatar has enjoyed importing our military and cyber technology (I wish this wasn’t true but it is was it is).
And it isn’t even true that Israel won’t allow these Muslim-majority countries to have the military capacity to threaten them. Turkey and Egypt already do, and have been massively building these capacities up over the years without any serious objection or opposition from Israel. Israel hasn't done anything to threaten either of their sovereignties or engaged in any conflict with them even in light of these buildups. All of this evidence undermines your thesis.
In reality, all the countries in the region have to do to avoid the Iran treatment is: 1. Not constantly threaten to kill us; and 2. Not actually try to kill us. The rhetoric of Turkey and Egypt over the years show that we will even compromise on 1. These things shouldn’t be too hard.
At the end of the day Iran and the "Axis of Resistance" have, in their different adventures in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, killed at least 5x more Arabs and Muslims than Israel ever has. They have played a major role in destabilizing and/or destroying these Arab countries. It is probably too much to ask that the people of the region thank us for defanging this threat that hurt them as much as it hurt us. But maybe, instead of working towards another round of civilizational conflict in 5-10 years, they should consider just taking the novel approach of not fighting us?
Unfortunately if you look at countries like Egypt, Jordan, and the GCC that have normal ties with Israel they are simply not sovereign. Let’s leave aside the absence of popular sovereignty and hostility to that which emerged during the Arab Spring and look merely at the material facts. The Egyptian F-16s operated by their Air Force are neutered of air-to-air capabilities by the U.S. and the same is believed for Jordan’s smaller Air Force as well. Most GCC defenses are run by U.S. advisors and they have limited sovereign control over there. These are countries under the U.S.-Israel hegemonic defense umbrella and when push comes to shove they are unable to actually provide their own security and Israel can veto it if need be. This is actually a legal requirement from Congress under the Israeli QME provision.
The countries in the Middle East that are sovereign are Turkey since the failed 2016 coup, and Iran, whose sovereignty is now under attack and being degraded. Everyone notices this and understands they are chafing under a very ruthless and tyrannical hegemony. The non-sovereign states by nature are doomed in the long-term and the struggle for sovereignty is also a struggle against Israel and its backers. That said is it possible to “flip” at least some Israelis and get them on the side of the region in the long-term? Yes I think so every society has divisions.
By that definition Israel isn't sovereign either. Those countries, like us, have decided that it is worth it to trade some of their independence in exchange for the benefits of being under the US umbrella, like foreign aid, weapons, US troops based in their country, etc. You say they are chaffing and that the US-Israeli system is tyrannizing them – but what is this tyranny exactly? What would these countries like to do (other than fight Israel) that the current alliance system prevents them from doing?
But anyway you haven’t addressed my main point. You say that Israel has some kind of doctrine to preemptively attack countries either to prevent them from having capabilities or from being sovereign, regardless of the current state of relations. Therefore, all the Muslim and Arab countries need to prepare to fight Israel because it is a mortal threat to them. I think this is wrong – Israel hasn’t done anything resembling this to anyone that wasn’t overtly and actively hostile, and we would almost certainly leave alone any country that wanted to be sovereign or have capabilities without attacking us.
I pointed to all the Arab and Muslim countries that we have trading relationships and provide national resources to - you say they don’t count because they are US vassals. Fine, although that already cuts against your point that Israel has a 0% threat deterrence policy, as it is fine with various threatening capabilities going to its co-vassals. But Iran doesn't prove your point either, as that is a case of extreme and active hostility.
So it looks like Turkey is the best test case – you agree that they are sovereign for at least the last decade or so, and they have only been somewhat hostile, and sporadically at that. And the fact of the matter is that there has been no serious Israeli effort to stop them from being sovereign or do anything else to them (other than buying their products). And whenever Erdogan has cooled off his rhetoric the countries have gone back to cooperating in trade and other areas. So the available evidence shows that a sovereign, non-hostile Muslim state doesn't have any rational reason to view Israel as a threat.
I can think of two main reasons why the other Middle Eastern countries would want to participate in your posited future civilizational war. One is that they hate us because of Gaza and want to intervene and get us out of the region as vengeance/justice or something along those lines. I guess I can understand that, but I don’t think it was the main argument you made. The second, and what I took from your piece, is that they believe we are a threat to them even if they aren’t hostile and don’t do anything to us. That isn’t really supported by any evidence and it would be a bad miscalculation for them to think that way.
Well if you look at it in context its a far more attractive arrangement for Israel. They get to enjoy a U.S. guaranteed QME and all sorts of other emergency assistance (we are seeing today) as well as permanent diplomatic and economic support for whatever policies the government may want to pursue regardless of how unpopular or controversial globally. Who could scoff at that?
Regarding paragraph 3 that was not my argument, these countries are specifically denied any capacities that could threaten their ostensible co-vassal which is why the arrangement is viewed as inequitable or dangerous. This is why Egypt held joint military exercises for the first time with China in April and wants to start purchasing its aircraft as there is a fear that U.S. equipment that might be employed against Israel would be rendered inoperable.
Regarding Turkey, we shall see. But aside from mutual recriminations and threats between Turkish and Israeli officials, Israel has already commissioned studies gaming out conflict with Turkey as an inevitability for the reasons that I identified (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362). I think they are likely right. But I should also add that I have a tragic/realist view of the world in general in which I assume conflict to be the normal state of affairs rather than peace. If someone had a different baseline assumption they would probably view my outlook as overly negative. I do not really factor emotional sentiments, desires for revenge etc. into my analysis per se although they undeniably play a role.
It is difficult to feel sorry for Egypt and Jordan for having less military capacity and be limited as to how much they can harm Israel. Excuse me, there are real problems in the world. These countries can concentrate on dealing with their problems and providing better lives for there people. It appears that you think that limiting their ability to attack Israel is an infringement of their rights. Enabling such capacities is an infringement on Israel’s right to exist. Israel does not threaten them if they don’t threaten Israel
I’m sorry but Israel’s existence is dependent on their Arab neighbors being constantly under siege by US intervention. Over the last century, the West has consistently supported autocratic regimes so America’s aircraft carrier in the Middle East—Israel—could continue to exist. There is a reason Israel is the only “democracy” in the Middle East. Israel is entirely incapable of standing on their own two feet.
In addition to what I wrote below I wish to add that your ignorant condescending assertion that it is America’s fault that these Arab countries are nasty autocratic dictatorships is an expression of a colonialist ignorance and lack of respect for these Moslem countries you claim
To have sympathy for. Really? You think their culture and mentality is the result of American imperialism? Allow me to inform reveal
To you that these people had the same stinking autocratic cruel racist way of life and government before they ever heard of America. You are so self centred that you think everything is about you? Grow up and learn about Moslem history ideology and culture and find out what you are defending
Your existence is also unpleasant for me. Bitter ignorant young people looking for somebody to blame for their failures and shortcomings, impotent, incapable of rational thought, ignorant and nasty. Unlike you, I do not support killing your sort off, as you wish for Israelis. I know you will just sink when we flush
How do you feel about your government’s genocide in Gaza?
Well, it is certainly a very special “genocide” because the population of Gaza has even grown during this war, not to mention that it has has grown four fold in 70 years so that is one hell if an amazing genocide. How do you feel? Is your head heavy with phoney tick tock posts? Muddled with distortions and lies? I suggest taking a rest, maybe lie down
Also, despite whatever you think
Of Israel’s present government is is hardly an autocratic regime. Certainly in comparison to the Islamic republic it is a great democracy.
Well, I never called it that if you read my comment. It is, however, a theocratic ethno-state that is conducting a genocide. I visited Israel as an American in 2019 and did not have a good experience
Gee not having a nice experience in Israel is such an excellent reason to support fundamentalist Islamic armies whose biggest aspiration is to kill
Everybody there. Maybe you should visit Afghanistan, Yemen, Gaza, and Iran in search of a wonderful humanitarian country. Or talk to refugees from those countries in
Order to learn more about the great humanistic regimes they escaped from.
What siege? Is Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia are under siege? You think it’s fine for Iran and its proxies to attack Israel because they want to and they deserve “autonomy”, meaning they should be allowed to do whatever they want? And if Sweden is under threat from Russia, the world should respect Russia’s desires and let them slaughter all the Swedes? Israel has stood on its own for 77 yrs. There are American interests in the middle east which it is protecting. You think enabling a murderous Islamic republic to what it wants is in your interests?
How I appreciate the original thoughtful post and counterpoint discussion by Murtaza and Ben. (And how little insight in the later comments, unfortunately).
I think the original post is built on a war-as-central stance, which makes me mostly disagree with it. Territorial conquest doesn’t motivate publics or kings anymore, with a few exceptions. A fractured Iran would be a nightmare for all, the US included. And I think powerful people in the US know this, based on our bungled project in Iraq.
I also don’t think the US is a major problem for most Arab countries…. Rather I think those governments like to blame problems on US domination rather than admit their own failures. Agreed with Ben: when others don’t use Israel as an enemy, it seems things work out OK.
With that said, Israel playing a strong hand today can lead to unintended consequences tomorrow. Young people in the US are now anti-Israel in massive proportions, and have locked that sentiment in their worldviews as they watch starving Palestinians on TV. The old pro-Israel crowd is fading away. The time may soon come when a pro-Israel stance is odious and embarrassing to the average American.
I myself had once cited ‘shared values’ as a tie that binds the US and Israel together. I feel less that way after watching Israel’s behavior in Gaza, even if provoked by prior behavior from Hamas. I value compassion and so do most Americans, despite our violent reputation. Israel shouldn’t count on my teenage children to vote for pro-Israel politicians. Indeed, as time passes we should all expect the opposite.
I agree that Israel is now being unnecessarily cruel and that should stop. However their enemies are fundamentalist Islamics. Supporting them is supporting their colonialist cruelty aspirations which in the long run will definitely harm western culture. They use the humanitarian values to further their own insidious goals
I have clear eyes about government of Iran, and their militant proxies surrounding Israel. These are bad actors on the world stage… beyond bad in some cases. In general they deserve what they get. I also see how especially Hamas manipulates opinion by hiding behind civilians, skimming/stealing aggressively from civilian foreign aid, etc. It’s all terrible.
From one viewpoint, Israel is just winning a war that it didn’t ask for.
But. Israel is also aggressively pushing people off their land in the West Bank, firing guns into crowds hungry civilians, and withholding food from starving children. These are acts of revenge and hatred. And they’re wrong. No matter how provoked, no matter Oct 7, no matter the insidious behaviors of Hamas. Wrong is wrong. And I think most Israelis know it.
Israel is traveling a slow-motion path to global pariah state. The US public will increasingly view Israel as such unless it changes course. I don’t say that to agree or disagree; I am just reading the scoreboard and calling the game as I see it.
I agree with you. I don't think it's just revenge. Those who attack innocent farmers in the West Bank represent an insane messianic stream and musst be arrested as terrorists. There is a huge public argument about this. MOst Israelis condemn it, as I do. At this point these evil nuts are even attacking the IDF. However, the reason this should be stopped is because it is wrong and evil, not because we should be afraid of what people think about us. was Germany made a pariah state after the Holocaust? Is Turkey a pariah state because of their treatment of Kurds and Armenians? Are Jews meant to be afraid of what people say about them forever? We should be good people because that is what human beings should be, not because of fear. I believe the distortions and lies will eventually become evident. Also israel has too much to offer to be boycotted forever. And those students with the Kaffeyas and green head bands will eventually grow up. Because Europe is innundated with Arabs, the hostility towards Israelis, in places like Britan is that there are lots of moslems whose votes politicans want. Let's hope this horror show ends soon and we isrealis manage to get rid of Bibi.
Now in this reply, I speak purely as pragmatist and not as one judging who is right or wrong (a thing I am not well qualified to do).
There’s only one time to be afraid of what others think. That time is when those others are propping you up militarily and on the world stage.
Bibi’s calculates he must fight hard everywhere while he has the upper hand, and that he (+ others) can sort the long term later. There’s a chance he’s right. If you Israelis can vote Bibi out, keep your boot heel on Hamas’ neck, and make durable peace with something fair for West Bank Palestinians, then he will be vindicated. Israel could be powerful, at peace, with enemies vanquished all around. Sounds nice.
But I think it’s more likely that the brutalized children will grow into radicalized adults, keep fighting you with terrorism, and keep losing the war in future generations. Gaza is still smoldering wreckage next door. Bibi will be replaced by the next Bibi and Israeli people will continue to hold their nose about their own radicals, and keep on fighting. In this scenario, Bibi is remembered as nothing more than one more warmonger. And what I’m trying to point out is: in that scenario, I would estimate that the US no longer protects Israel, in the UN or in general. Israel becomes a pariah state in such a scenario.
I hope not. Israel has a lot of good things going for it; some great things actually. But this path is a major risk for Israel. THE major risk, in my opinion.
We shall soon know how things work out. There is talk of including Syria and Lebanon in the Abraham Accords, enshalla. I used to think the problem was how we treated the people in the West Bank, but I have come to realize the issues are much wider. Of course the people in the West Bank should have better lives but the big issue is Islamic Fundamentalism. WE in Israel and the Palestinians are pawns in a much larger struggle.It seems to me that this conflict can only be resolved over our heads, by more powerful forces. None of Israelis previous regimes were as suicidal as Bib's present government and there will somehow be an end to his vicious tactics. There is hope that he will be deposed. Israelis are out in the streets every day and shouting in the knesset. The Palestinians are also dependent on outside support, like Israel and among them there are also saner voices. At this point we are all suffering from trauma and have begun to persecute our own people as well as what are considered our enemies. Somehow the situation will shift and let's hope improves.
Who can refute such a propaganda machine
It is difficult to refute the truth
The truth is hard to refute https://jacobin.com/2024/05/rashid-khalidi-settler-colonialism-palestine
Now you send me this report of what an employee if radical Islamists says? Haha. You think this is truth? You might learn or not, just join them, they promise 72 virgins if you die killing Jews
Thankfully there are some moral Israeli s though none on this thread https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-05/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/massive-database-of-evidence-compiled-by-a-historian-details-israels-war-crimes-in-gaza/00000193-979b-d408-a7d3-bfdbf1410000
It is nice and commendable that an excellent Israeli newspaper reports on. When will somebody report on all the Arab Moslem war crimes?
Yeah we have many opinions in Israel and we don’t kill people we disagree with like the Arabs do so they are free to express their opinions. This is a feature of democracy, which although threatened in Israel, is still much better than anything you find in a Moslem country. You use our open Minds and freedom of expression to support your criminal aspirations.
Indeed https://truthout.org/articles/israeli-citizenship-has-always-been-a-tool-of-genocide-so-i-renounced-mine/
Of course there are many casualties in Gaza of the war they started, unprovoked, when they were swimming in money from Qatar, getting free health and education from UNWRA, free electricity and water from Israel. But they had their big dream of killing all the Israelis, burning babies and raping and mutilating, so surprise surprise, Israel responded and since they hide in hospitals and schools, using their people as human shields, they have many casualties. A genocide us what they aspired to achieve but typically if them, they commit crimes and then claim
They are victims of the crimes they commit. So no genocide. A war they lost. Maybe they should try using the billions they get to build their economy as they promised and taking care of their people. A little birthday control could also be useful for them because all they do is have children and try to kill Israelis. They should try other activities
This is from a social worker, your poor clients who don't deserve you. Please stop communicating with me you are not worthy of my time.
I can see that you are not one to actually make any effort to understand the situation in Gaza. You are what they call a bleeding heart. Oh, babies are dying, quick let's blame somebody. I honestly regret that people in Gaza are suffering but that does not mean that I think it's ok to attack and rape mutilate, murder and kidnap my people. Yes, it's probabl a good idea for israel to stop the war in Gaza and get our poor starved and abused hostages back but this war was provoked by Palestinian leaders who say things like: We have no problem with 50,000 dead, we can make new people, no problem. They encourage a high brith rate so that they can have lots of "martyrs". This is what they actually say. Even when one is in a profession that is devoted to helping people, one need not be suicidal and relinquish the capacity for rational thought.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-05-27/ty-article-opinion/.premium/enough-is-enough-israel-is-committing-war-crimes/00000197-0dd6-df85-a197-0ff64a5c0000
There is a lot of criticism of the present Israeli government which I agree with, but you infer from this that Israel is evil and has no right to exist. That those who are at war with Israel somehow, because they are "victims" justice is with them. No. it is possible to be miserable and still be wrong. The Palestinian leaders are living in fancy hotels in Qatar, using the billions contributed to their people while they let their people suffer. They steal their aid in order to have those wonderful starving people photos. They have warehouses full of food they deny their people. Now that food is being distributed by the alternative American aid group, they started giving out food themselves. Starvation is how they stay in power, so long as they have control of the food, which is what they had. They would steal the aid trucks, with the help of their buddies in UNRWA and then sell it for exorbitant prices and then use the money they made to pay their operatives so Gaza people had no choice but to work for them. i can see that it is not just the military aid that bothers you, youo just don't like Israel, admit it. And denying Israel's right to exist is in fact racist. Do you also think Russia doesn't have the right to exist because they attacked Ukraine? Or China because they abuse their people? Or Yemen where half the population starved the other half, causing a million deaths? Or Sudan where over a million people have already been slaughtered?
maybe the American people should build better institutions to care for Americans and stop blaming Israel for their troubles.
I follow your writings which are often insightful, but this reads like a lot of wishful thinking. I don’t know much about the current sentiment in Iran, but during the war with Lebanon I followed Lebanese social media. It was quite evident that while no one there loves Israel, they mostly recognized that Hezbollas’ recklessness brought this war upon them and that they would have never been touched by Israel if they would have left Israel alone. I believe the same is understood by all people in the region. Iran is suffering for its own aggression against Israel. Countries at peace with Israel know they have no reason to fear Israel.
It’s too soon to say where the current war with Iran is expected to go. But if the Iranians buckle and drink the poison chalice, this will in all likelihood mark the end of radical nihilist militancy in the region. It is just as likely that Israel will reach peace agreements with Lebanon and Syria. As regards the Palestinian issue, the demographic headwinds are now on Israel’s side for the decades to come. The Gaza war will end sooner or later. Many Palestinians who can, will move out of Gaza. Many Jews from the diaspora will move to Israel. With Hamas type militancy fully discredited, Palestinians will pursue a more constructive path. Either they will manage to secure a mini-state in the West Bank by diplomacy, or there will be one state with cultural autonomy for the Palestinians and a path to citizenship for those willing to take an oath of loyalty to the State of Israel. A decade from now, when the passions and the propaganda will subside, people will look back at this period and see very clearly how all this started and how it ended.
If it works out that way it’s fine. My baseline assumption is that war is the state of nature and I believe the Israeli government agrees with me.
That may be, but in history you have brief periods of intense war followed by prolonged peace. The Arab Israeli wars between 1967 and 1973 brought about prolonged peace with the Arab sates abandoning the idea of eliminating Israel through war. It also brought forth the idea that Israel might be worn down by non-sate actors and the ballistic missile threat. The failure of this strategy has been spectacularly demonstrated over the past two years. Will the result now be a resumption of the state level threat? It doesn't have to be.
It depends on political outlook in Israel. If they continue to embrace a 0% doctrine of deterrence post-October 7 then of course others will find it intolerable even if they prefer not to have wars. It will be as though the entire region lived under foreign occupation such that all their defense capacities are neutered below the level of sovereignty. The statements of Israeli officials these days are very eye opening and it would be malpractice to ignore them. Likewise Erdogan and others are also making highly alarmed and extreme statements.
Excellent and very thoughtful article. I'll take a few days to really reflect on it before getting back to you.
your a jewish supremacist who simply views the natives of the middle east as uncivilised and badly behaved - all your analysis stems from this assumption
Please keep an eye on Africa in all this. Please, please, please. The oil...the oil...the oil... the oil... Sahel is the new "epicenter of terrorism" but we just had to bomb Somalia and now Iran is a target. 20 billion barrels of oil in Turkey's hands through this Somalia deal. They're aiming at a lot of birds with this stone.
Thank you for the analysis.
I agree that Israel is now radical and seeking complete regional dominance, particularly over all Muslim countries. However, many of these countries have their own ambitions and will actively work to assert their influence. They are determined to shape their own future—independently—and will not accept Israel or any other power dictating their path.
You have not addressed the growth of messianic Zionism, Jewish in Israel, Christian in the US. On Jerusalem Day Smotrich said: נזכה בהרחבת גבולות ישראל,
, ובנין בית המקדש בקרוב במהרה בימינו. ״ א
« We will achieve the expansion of Israel’s border,complete redemption, and the building of the Holy Temple soon quickly in our days. » this is not an « underground » personality. He and his fellow messianic enthusiast Ben Gvir are what keeps Netanyahu in power, and the US ambassador, Mike Huckabee, also promotes messianic policies. This could change everything. I
I addressed this in a recent post.
As an aside, that’s why the China/Russia relationship was never a serious threat—China wants to develop military industrial capacity for themselves and not rely on Russian weapons. So China imports value added manufacturing with the goal of reverse engineering the technology and developing the industry for themselves. In the end the Middle Kingdom only wants grain and energy from a trade partner. And with respect to energy oil is so 2008 and LNG is the key to the future and China is building huge natural gas storage infrastructure to complement their huge hydro dams and so hydro dams also act as natural gas storage infrastructure
Thank you, Murtaza. You are very thoughtful with this.
My gut feeling is that what is animating such destructive behaviour by the west is actually a collective mental illness. Neurotics build dream castles, and psychotics live in them. Western politicrats are exhibiting various degrees of both.
Netanyahu reminds me more and more of the Reverend Jim Jones.
I don’t see what elites (or ordinary people) in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia have to gain from conflict with Israel. I also don’t see what Israel has to gain from conflict with those states either. So I am not sure why those countries should be preparing for war with Israel. Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular have militaries which I believe are more capable than those of Iran. So if it was to their advantage to fight Israel, why haven’t they already done so? Also, if it was to their advantage for the Palestinians to fight the Israeli’s, why weren’t they the major patrons of Hamas, instead of allowing one of their chief rivals to have that kind of influence in Gaza? My understanding is that most states in the Middle East actually support Israel, though they cannot say this aloud because Israel is so unpopular among their populace. But why would Saudi Arabia’s leaders object to watching bombs rain down upon a hated rival? Why would Lebanese leaders object to the killing of the leaders of a militant separatist minority? How does any of what Israel does touch upon the core interests of Turkey’s leadership? Why do any of them (except maybe Egypt) really care about what happens in Gaza? How does that impinge upon their own power (ie the power of the elites of in Middle Eastern countries)?
This isn’t meant as a defense of Israel, just more an attempt to understand what you are arguing. Right now it looks to me like Israel is fighting a war in Gaza that Middle Eastern leaders don’t really care about, occupying territory in Syria that those leaders don’t appear to care much about, and have been fighting against Iran and Iranian proxies, which many leaders in the region may be quite happy about. Is Israel going to attack Egypt, or Jordan, or Turkey, or Saudi Arabia?
There’s a mutual problem as I mentioned. Israelis don’t want any of their neighbors to be fully sovereign which means they can’t have defense technology that is actually effective in deterring all enemies including them. So a conflict is inevitable. And this leaves aside the civilizational reasons and deep mutual hatred and suspicion.
Would Israel realistically go to war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons? Netanyahu might want to do that, but I think he would quickly be ousted from office if he started saying very clearly that Israel would go to war with those countries. Israel is only fighting against nations that don’t have allies. Turkey is part of NATO, and KSA is de facto part of NATO.
Have you ever seen Mean Streets or Boyz n the Hood?? You get mixed up with the wrong crowd and it’s hard to shake them.
On potential future conflicts: 1) Egypt has already tried striking at Israel and lost badly. 2) Pakistan is in no shape to enter a conflict with such a distant nation, and it is not clear why it would even want to fight Israel unless it is deeply infected with the same ideological rot as the Iranian regime which you so neatly describe in this piece. 3) Turkey is the real deal, Israelis need to be careful to get on their good side. 4) China won’t support any of the three above in any conflict, except maybe Pakistan against their common enemy India. If the Chinese won’t lift a finger to help Iran who sells them oil at a very favorable price, then why would they even consider stepping in to any future conflict between any of these three countries and Israel?
China has no strategic relation at all with Iran. They have a commercial relationship and Iran has actually rejected Chinese efforts to build strategic ties with Beijing because it wanted to reintegrate with the West instead. Every Islamic country hates Israel at this point and the sentiment is mutual (I don’t mean as individuals on either side but let’s merely look at official statements). Pakistanis rightly see Israel as a threat despite its distance and Netanyahu himself has said that Pakistan’s nuclear program is a danger to Israel. That said they have intelligence level dialogue that keeps things at a truce for now. Definitely you will see more wars in future and Turkey is obviously a central part of it (they are close allies of Pakistan). Regarding Egypt the mid-level officer class all reviles Camp David and are disgusted by the Gaza situation.
This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs. But this is refuted by our own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Someone's lying.
Not sure what I think about this. Can you highlight the section(s) you are referring to?
In this article? It's interlaced with the standard "their nuclear program" statements. That's a quote btw
The nuclear program refers to their civilian nuclear program, which they have. Having a nuclear program doesn't imply having nuclear weapons.
No, the nuclear program refers to their (supposed) building nuclear bombs.
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you're just not very smart, Richard. For reference, here's the first sentence on wikipedia's article on Iran's nuclear program:
"The nuclear program of Iran is one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world. Although the Iranian government maintains that the purpose is for civilian and peaceful uses, some have claimed that they are covertly developing nuclear weapons..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran
You're wandering all over, and I'm not sure why. My statement is, "This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs." If you disagree, tell me why. Otherwise go away.
Grim piece. Can we get a Part 2 that expands on the signs pointing towards an inevitable "Civilizational War" that, as some have pointed out, will likely take aim next at Turkey?
Many have pointed to Turkey's recent advantages as possible building blocks for constructing the centre of an updated Muslim civilization that fills some of the void left by waning Western universalism and post-war liberalism. Is this what the upcoming Reconquista is taking aim at, beyond ensuring Israeli regional dominance?
I feel like sketching out some clear features of the emerging "Civilizational War" might help people understand the gravity of what you say will inevitably happen. If Crusader Israel does go on to pick fights with Muslim majority countries in the region, either one by one or simultaneously, then the sheer magnitude of such a broad conflict might trigger even wider effects that fuel a WW3 scenario?
I am going to do an update on Huntington in future
The portrayal of Israel as a “new Israel” focused on domination and disregarding civilian lives in Iran and Palestine underscores how far the conflict has escalated beyond traditional deterrence, feeding into a cycle of violence that makes peaceful resolution ever more difficult.
Only a nuclear deterrent can save Iran. No other way out
On the surface your analysis seems rational and thoughtful. However you lack the wisdom insights that’s not obvious to the rational mind. In fact much of Irans actions are very wise, risk managed and they’ve won a bigger prize than is obvious now. The axis of Resistance is core to a profound shift in the worlds rising consciousness & exposing the deception lies and plots post ww1 and the order established post ww2. We live in interesting times and Israel & Zionist/ western hegemony & all its vassals, like India, stand exposed now. The Sunni Muslim states in ME, Turkey and Turkistan states are hedging but all is not as it seems. Neither is Donald Trump. So your analysis will have its revision when the time comes.
You should feed Claude and a few AI questions and see how its geopolitics analysts pans out.
The biggest revelation of this war imo is Israel's intelligence and technological capabilities. Reading through the list of senior military leaders and nuclear scientists who were killed on June 13th is sobering, not least because it proved that the succesful decapitation of Hezbollah months before was no fluke. Those who oppose Israel can reassure themselves of the country's small size and small population, but I fear we are entering an age where having insurmountable advantage in intelligence and technology can cancel out such a disadvantage. Israel can kill your military elite, can kill whoever replaces a week later. I've yet to see anyone truly grapple with the consequences of this.
Israel's has clearly demonstrated it has no intention to integrate into the region. It's plan is to dominate it, and to do so indefinitely. What doesn't make sense about this decision is the timing. Israel cannot count on the MENA being weak and dysfunctional forever. It also can't count on fanatical US support forever. In fact both are likely to end long before the end of the century. So what exactly is their long term vision? Do we simply lack the imagination?