Please keep an eye on Africa in all this. Please, please, please. The oil...the oil...the oil... the oil... Sahel is the new "epicenter of terrorism" but we just had to bomb Somalia and now Iran is a target. 20 billion barrels of oil in Turkey's hands through this Somalia deal. They're aiming at a lot of birds with this stone.
I agree that Israel is now radical and seeking complete regional dominance, particularly over all Muslim countries. However, many of these countries have their own ambitions and will actively work to assert their influence. They are determined to shape their own future—independently—and will not accept Israel or any other power dictating their path.
As an aside, that’s why the China/Russia relationship was never a serious threat—China wants to develop military industrial capacity for themselves and not rely on Russian weapons. So China imports value added manufacturing with the goal of reverse engineering the technology and developing the industry for themselves. In the end the Middle Kingdom only wants grain and energy from a trade partner. And with respect to energy oil is so 2008 and LNG is the key to the future and China is building huge natural gas storage infrastructure to complement their huge hydro dams and so hydro dams also act as natural gas storage infrastructure
Thank you, Murtaza. You are very thoughtful with this.
My gut feeling is that what is animating such destructive behaviour by the west is actually a collective mental illness. Neurotics build dream castles, and psychotics live in them. Western politicrats are exhibiting various degrees of both.
Netanyahu reminds me more and more of the Reverend Jim Jones.
I follow your writings which are often insightful, but this reads like a lot of wishful thinking. I don’t know much about the current sentiment in Iran, but during the war with Lebanon I followed Lebanese social media. It was quite evident that while no one there loves Israel, they mostly recognized that Hezbollas’ recklessness brought this war upon them and that they would have never been touched by Israel if they would have left Israel alone. I believe the same is understood by all people in the region. Iran is suffering for its own aggression against Israel. Countries at peace with Israel know they have no reason to fear Israel.
It’s too soon to say where the current war with Iran is expected to go. But if the Iranians buckle and drink the poison chalice, this will in all likelihood mark the end of radical nihilist militancy in the region. It is just as likely that Israel will reach peace agreements with Lebanon and Syria. As regards the Palestinian issue, the demographic headwinds are now on Israel’s side for the decades to come. The Gaza war will end sooner or later. Many Palestinians who can, will move out of Gaza. Many Jews from the diaspora will move to Israel. With Hamas type militancy fully discredited, Palestinians will pursue a more constructive path. Either they will manage to secure a mini-state in the West Bank by diplomacy, or there will be one state with cultural autonomy for the Palestinians and a path to citizenship for those willing to take an oath of loyalty to the State of Israel. A decade from now, when the passions and the propaganda will subside, people will look back at this period and see very clearly how all this started and how it ended.
That may be, but in history you have brief periods of intense war followed by prolonged peace. The Arab Israeli wars between 1967 and 1973 brought about prolonged peace with the Arab sates abandoning the idea of eliminating Israel through war. It also brought forth the idea that Israel might be worn down by non-sate actors and the ballistic missile threat. The failure of this strategy has been spectacularly demonstrated over the past two years. Will the result now be a resumption of the state level threat? It doesn't have to be.
It depends on political outlook in Israel. If they continue to embrace a 0% doctrine of deterrence post-October 7 then of course others will find it intolerable even if they prefer not to have wars. It will be as though the entire region lived under foreign occupation such that all their defense capacities are neutered below the level of sovereignty. The statements of Israeli officials these days are very eye opening and it would be malpractice to ignore them. Likewise Erdogan and others are also making highly alarmed and extreme statements.
Grim piece. Can we get a Part 2 that expands on the signs pointing towards an inevitable "Civilizational War" that, as some have pointed out, will likely take aim next at Turkey?
Many have pointed to Turkey's recent advantages as possible building blocks for constructing the centre of an updated Muslim civilization that fills some of the void left by waning Western universalism and post-war liberalism. Is this what the upcoming Reconquista is taking aim at, beyond ensuring Israeli regional dominance?
I feel like sketching out some clear features of the emerging "Civilizational War" might help people understand the gravity of what you say will inevitably happen. If Crusader Israel does go on to pick fights with Muslim majority countries in the region, either one by one or simultaneously, then the sheer magnitude of such a broad conflict might trigger even wider effects that fuel a WW3 scenario?
This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs. But this is refuted by our own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Someone's lying.
I don’t see what elites (or ordinary people) in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia have to gain from conflict with Israel. I also don’t see what Israel has to gain from conflict with those states either. So I am not sure why those countries should be preparing for war with Israel. Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular have militaries which I believe are more capable than those of Iran. So if it was to their advantage to fight Israel, why haven’t they already done so? Also, if it was to their advantage for the Palestinians to fight the Israeli’s, why weren’t they the major patrons of Hamas, instead of allowing one of their chief rivals to have that kind of influence in Gaza? My understanding is that most states in the Middle East actually support Israel, though they cannot say this aloud because Israel is so unpopular among their populace. But why would Saudi Arabia’s leaders object to watching bombs rain down upon a hated rival? Why would Lebanese leaders object to the killing of the leaders of a militant separatist minority? How does any of what Israel does touch upon the core interests of Turkey’s leadership? Why do any of them (except maybe Egypt) really care about what happens in Gaza? How does that impinge upon their own power (ie the power of the elites of in Middle Eastern countries)?
This isn’t meant as a defense of Israel, just more an attempt to understand what you are arguing. Right now it looks to me like Israel is fighting a war in Gaza that Middle Eastern leaders don’t really care about, occupying territory in Syria that those leaders don’t appear to care much about, and have been fighting against Iran and Iranian proxies, which many leaders in the region may be quite happy about. Is Israel going to attack Egypt, or Jordan, or Turkey, or Saudi Arabia?
There’s a mutual problem as I mentioned. Israelis don’t want any of their neighbors to be fully sovereign which means they can’t have defense technology that is actually effective in deterring all enemies including them. So a conflict is inevitable. And this leaves aside the civilizational reasons and deep mutual hatred and suspicion.
On potential future conflicts: 1) Egypt has already tried striking at Israel and lost badly. 2) Pakistan is in no shape to enter a conflict with such a distant nation, and it is not clear why it would even want to fight Israel unless it is deeply infected with the same ideological rot as the Iranian regime which you so neatly describe in this piece. 3) Turkey is the real deal, Israelis need to be careful to get on their good side. 4) China won’t support any of the three above in any conflict, except maybe Pakistan against their common enemy India. If the Chinese won’t lift a finger to help Iran who sells them oil at a very favorable price, then why would they even consider stepping in to any future conflict between any of these three countries and Israel?
China has no strategic relation at all with Iran. They have a commercial relationship and Iran has actually rejected Chinese efforts to build strategic ties with Beijing because it wanted to reintegrate with the West instead. Every Islamic country hates Israel at this point and the sentiment is mutual (I don’t mean as individuals on either side but let’s merely look at official statements). Pakistanis rightly see Israel as a threat despite its distance and Netanyahu himself has said that Pakistan’s nuclear program is a danger to Israel. That said they have intelligence level dialogue that keeps things at a truce for now. Definitely you will see more wars in future and Turkey is obviously a central part of it (they are close allies of Pakistan). Regarding Egypt the mid-level officer class all reviles Camp David and are disgusted by the Gaza situation.
Please keep an eye on Africa in all this. Please, please, please. The oil...the oil...the oil... the oil... Sahel is the new "epicenter of terrorism" but we just had to bomb Somalia and now Iran is a target. 20 billion barrels of oil in Turkey's hands through this Somalia deal. They're aiming at a lot of birds with this stone.
Thank you for the analysis.
I agree that Israel is now radical and seeking complete regional dominance, particularly over all Muslim countries. However, many of these countries have their own ambitions and will actively work to assert their influence. They are determined to shape their own future—independently—and will not accept Israel or any other power dictating their path.
As an aside, that’s why the China/Russia relationship was never a serious threat—China wants to develop military industrial capacity for themselves and not rely on Russian weapons. So China imports value added manufacturing with the goal of reverse engineering the technology and developing the industry for themselves. In the end the Middle Kingdom only wants grain and energy from a trade partner. And with respect to energy oil is so 2008 and LNG is the key to the future and China is building huge natural gas storage infrastructure to complement their huge hydro dams and so hydro dams also act as natural gas storage infrastructure
Thank you, Murtaza. You are very thoughtful with this.
My gut feeling is that what is animating such destructive behaviour by the west is actually a collective mental illness. Neurotics build dream castles, and psychotics live in them. Western politicrats are exhibiting various degrees of both.
Netanyahu reminds me more and more of the Reverend Jim Jones.
I follow your writings which are often insightful, but this reads like a lot of wishful thinking. I don’t know much about the current sentiment in Iran, but during the war with Lebanon I followed Lebanese social media. It was quite evident that while no one there loves Israel, they mostly recognized that Hezbollas’ recklessness brought this war upon them and that they would have never been touched by Israel if they would have left Israel alone. I believe the same is understood by all people in the region. Iran is suffering for its own aggression against Israel. Countries at peace with Israel know they have no reason to fear Israel.
It’s too soon to say where the current war with Iran is expected to go. But if the Iranians buckle and drink the poison chalice, this will in all likelihood mark the end of radical nihilist militancy in the region. It is just as likely that Israel will reach peace agreements with Lebanon and Syria. As regards the Palestinian issue, the demographic headwinds are now on Israel’s side for the decades to come. The Gaza war will end sooner or later. Many Palestinians who can, will move out of Gaza. Many Jews from the diaspora will move to Israel. With Hamas type militancy fully discredited, Palestinians will pursue a more constructive path. Either they will manage to secure a mini-state in the West Bank by diplomacy, or there will be one state with cultural autonomy for the Palestinians and a path to citizenship for those willing to take an oath of loyalty to the State of Israel. A decade from now, when the passions and the propaganda will subside, people will look back at this period and see very clearly how all this started and how it ended.
If it works out that way it’s fine. My baseline assumption is that war is the state of nature and I believe the Israeli government agrees with me.
That may be, but in history you have brief periods of intense war followed by prolonged peace. The Arab Israeli wars between 1967 and 1973 brought about prolonged peace with the Arab sates abandoning the idea of eliminating Israel through war. It also brought forth the idea that Israel might be worn down by non-sate actors and the ballistic missile threat. The failure of this strategy has been spectacularly demonstrated over the past two years. Will the result now be a resumption of the state level threat? It doesn't have to be.
It depends on political outlook in Israel. If they continue to embrace a 0% doctrine of deterrence post-October 7 then of course others will find it intolerable even if they prefer not to have wars. It will be as though the entire region lived under foreign occupation such that all their defense capacities are neutered below the level of sovereignty. The statements of Israeli officials these days are very eye opening and it would be malpractice to ignore them. Likewise Erdogan and others are also making highly alarmed and extreme statements.
Grim piece. Can we get a Part 2 that expands on the signs pointing towards an inevitable "Civilizational War" that, as some have pointed out, will likely take aim next at Turkey?
Many have pointed to Turkey's recent advantages as possible building blocks for constructing the centre of an updated Muslim civilization that fills some of the void left by waning Western universalism and post-war liberalism. Is this what the upcoming Reconquista is taking aim at, beyond ensuring Israeli regional dominance?
I feel like sketching out some clear features of the emerging "Civilizational War" might help people understand the gravity of what you say will inevitably happen. If Crusader Israel does go on to pick fights with Muslim majority countries in the region, either one by one or simultaneously, then the sheer magnitude of such a broad conflict might trigger even wider effects that fuel a WW3 scenario?
I am going to do an update on Huntington in future
This article takes as gospel the nonstop official version that Iran is building nuclear bombs. But this is refuted by our own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Someone's lying.
Not sure what I think about this. Can you highlight the section(s) you are referring to?
In this article? It's interlaced with the standard "their nuclear program" statements. That's a quote btw
The nuclear program refers to their civilian nuclear program, which they have. Having a nuclear program doesn't imply having nuclear weapons.
No, the nuclear program refers to their (supposed) building nuclear bombs.
I don’t see what elites (or ordinary people) in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia have to gain from conflict with Israel. I also don’t see what Israel has to gain from conflict with those states either. So I am not sure why those countries should be preparing for war with Israel. Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular have militaries which I believe are more capable than those of Iran. So if it was to their advantage to fight Israel, why haven’t they already done so? Also, if it was to their advantage for the Palestinians to fight the Israeli’s, why weren’t they the major patrons of Hamas, instead of allowing one of their chief rivals to have that kind of influence in Gaza? My understanding is that most states in the Middle East actually support Israel, though they cannot say this aloud because Israel is so unpopular among their populace. But why would Saudi Arabia’s leaders object to watching bombs rain down upon a hated rival? Why would Lebanese leaders object to the killing of the leaders of a militant separatist minority? How does any of what Israel does touch upon the core interests of Turkey’s leadership? Why do any of them (except maybe Egypt) really care about what happens in Gaza? How does that impinge upon their own power (ie the power of the elites of in Middle Eastern countries)?
This isn’t meant as a defense of Israel, just more an attempt to understand what you are arguing. Right now it looks to me like Israel is fighting a war in Gaza that Middle Eastern leaders don’t really care about, occupying territory in Syria that those leaders don’t appear to care much about, and have been fighting against Iran and Iranian proxies, which many leaders in the region may be quite happy about. Is Israel going to attack Egypt, or Jordan, or Turkey, or Saudi Arabia?
There’s a mutual problem as I mentioned. Israelis don’t want any of their neighbors to be fully sovereign which means they can’t have defense technology that is actually effective in deterring all enemies including them. So a conflict is inevitable. And this leaves aside the civilizational reasons and deep mutual hatred and suspicion.
Have you ever seen Mean Streets or Boyz n the Hood?? You get mixed up with the wrong crowd and it’s hard to shake them.
On potential future conflicts: 1) Egypt has already tried striking at Israel and lost badly. 2) Pakistan is in no shape to enter a conflict with such a distant nation, and it is not clear why it would even want to fight Israel unless it is deeply infected with the same ideological rot as the Iranian regime which you so neatly describe in this piece. 3) Turkey is the real deal, Israelis need to be careful to get on their good side. 4) China won’t support any of the three above in any conflict, except maybe Pakistan against their common enemy India. If the Chinese won’t lift a finger to help Iran who sells them oil at a very favorable price, then why would they even consider stepping in to any future conflict between any of these three countries and Israel?
China has no strategic relation at all with Iran. They have a commercial relationship and Iran has actually rejected Chinese efforts to build strategic ties with Beijing because it wanted to reintegrate with the West instead. Every Islamic country hates Israel at this point and the sentiment is mutual (I don’t mean as individuals on either side but let’s merely look at official statements). Pakistanis rightly see Israel as a threat despite its distance and Netanyahu himself has said that Pakistan’s nuclear program is a danger to Israel. That said they have intelligence level dialogue that keeps things at a truce for now. Definitely you will see more wars in future and Turkey is obviously a central part of it (they are close allies of Pakistan). Regarding Egypt the mid-level officer class all reviles Camp David and are disgusted by the Gaza situation.
Thanks, I miss stuff when I skim.