Bracing For the Israel-Iran War That May Come

A Terrifying Conflict that Might Redraw the Borders of the Middle East

A week after the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in Tehran, Israel and Iran stand on the brink of a regional war that could reshape the Middle East. Since Haniyeh's killing, coming on the heels of the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, both Iranian and Hezbollah leaders have vowed a military reaction likely involving strikes at Israeli territory directly. In a speech following the killings, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said that the war had entered "a new phase that is different from the previous period.”

Efforts to use diplomacy to mitigate Iran's response have so far shown little success. The country has currently put its airlines on notice of upcoming disruptions, as foreign embassies continue to advise their citizens to evacuate the region entirely. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Arab diplomats who have tried to restrain Iran have been told by the Iranians that they do not care if their response to the killing of Haniyeh sparks a larger war.

Israel itself is now bracing for the impact of such a war.

An IDF planning document envisages the creation of tent cities for Israelis in the south of the country, along with, "a potential three-day power outage in some cities; breakdowns in water supply that could last days; a disconnection of landlines for up to eight hours and cellphone communications for up to 24 hours; and brief local disruptions to radio and internet." The report notes that 40 percent of Israelis may be unable to work for the duration of the war. Israeli political and military leadership have also reportedly relocated to bunkers in anticipation of the conflict.

To be sure, Israel would be far from the only country devastated by such a war. A security official quoted in the Times of Israel about the planning document added darkly that, “the reality for the other side will be far worse, to put it mildly." A major war would result in extensive infrastructure damage and loss of life in Lebanon, as well as potentially Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, in line with Israel’s “Dahieh Doctrine” calling for massive punishment strikes on civilian areas in response to militant attacks.

Yet if the regional conflict becomes a grinding war of attrition the margin of error is relatively small for Israel. With a population of roughly 9.5 million people, around 2 million of whom are Palestinian citizens of Israel and another million ultra-orthodox Jews who mostly do not participate in the military, an extended war would impose incredible stress on a society that has already been strained by the campaign in Gaza, and whose fissures have already broken open into public disorder and attacks on military bases. Israel would have limited capacity to continue fighting over the long-term if casualties begin to rise to levels comparable to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

The gradually degrading impact of such a war on Israel fits with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s avowed strategy to combat the country by inflicting incremental damage over time, draining away its stability through emigration, economic disruption, and insecurity.

"The Israelis have superior air power and could cause significant damage to Iran if the conflict reached that level. But the Iranians really would be able to disrupt all of Israeli society," said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. "It is very disorienting for the Israelis to have tens of thousands of citizens displaced from the north, and a very large number of people who have left the country. This is happening already due to a relatively small number of Hamas rockets and a very restrained war with Hezbollah."

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In April, following another Israeli attack that killed several officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli territory. The launches were telegraphed well in advance to allow Israel's regional allies, as well as the U.S., to intercept the attack.

The choreographed manner of the assault was an attempt to avoid fatalities and escalation. But no such advance warning is being given in the current round of escalation. In a statement after the recent assassination in Tehran, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instead said that it was Iran's duty to "avenge the dear guest's blood," by extracting a price on Israel for the death of Haniyeh.

An Iranian attack would likely be conducted on multiple fronts simultaneously, with Hezbollah joining in alongside the Houthis in Yemen and various Iraqi and Syria armed groups allied with Iran. In addition to rocket and ballistic missiles strikes against Israeli military targets, an attack might also direct IRGC and Hezbollah ground troops in Lebanon and Syria to attack IDF troops based in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

The nature of Israel's response would likely depend on the number of IDF or civilian casualties suffered, as well as domestic political pressure on the government to strike back against Iran and its allies in the wake of such an attack. Yet there capacity to escalate is constrained by its territorial and manpower limitations. As a country with limited trade with its neighbors, Israel is effectively an island dependent on seaports and air transit to maintain basic functions.

"Israel's weakness is the lack of strategic depth within the country. It's very small, and if you don't count the West Bank its territory is extremely narrow as well," said Sina Toosi, senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy. "The Iranians and their allies have a pretty good idea where Israel's sensitive facilities are, including military and economic targets, water desalinization plants, air bases, ammonia factories, and other critical infrastructure. The operations of Israel's port in Eilat are now also largely shut down due to attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea and firing of drones and missiles. That makes Israel much more dependent on its Mediterranean ports, with Haifa being the largest one."

In the event of a war which escalates towards direct attacks on civilian infrastructure, Israel would likely hit major sites inside Iran as well, including oil and gas facilities, power plants, and dams. Lebanon, which has already endured the effects of numerous wars with Israel, would also likely suffer catastrophic damage to its cities and infrastructure. Israeli officials have taken to regularly threatening to destroy the country in case of a war, including its capital of Beirut.

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The U.S. has responded to the possible conflict by redeploying extensive naval and air assets to the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. These would likely be activated in case of a war in order to defend Israel. The U.S. also has military bases scattered across the region, many of which would come under risk of attack in a regional war. An attack on a base in Iraq this week, likely carried out by Iranian-backed militias, injured a number of U.S. soldiers stationed at the facility.

Support among the U.S. public for fighting a war on Israel's behalf has gone down in recent years, with recent polls showing a majority of Americans now oppose sending U.S. troops to defend Israel in the case of a conflict. In addition to fatigue after years of failed wars in the region, these changing sentiments reflect a generational divide in the American public, including among American Jews, about the nature of the Israeli government.

While its long-term support from the U.S. may come into question, Israel's actions are also rapidly alienated other countries in the region, many of whom now appear to be putting aside their post-Arab Spring conflicts to refocus on Israel as the most significant local threat.

Egypt, a longstanding security partner of Israel, has now joined the International Court of Justice genocide case against the country. Turkey, which had also sought to mend ties with Israel before the war, has now become one of its major political antagonists.

Recent comments by the Turkish foreign minister reflect a mixture of hostility and exasperation with both Israel and its U.S. sponsor.

"Israel initiates violence, and then they come to Egypt, they come to us, asking us to tell them not to go to war," Fidan said. "We are no longer playing this game. America's attempts to clean up behind the scenes and mitigate every wrongdoing by Israel have become unacceptable. Israel's owners must now take its leash and protect it. The region can no longer tolerate continued Israeli provocations."

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Another incendiary component to a possible Israel-Iran war is the role of Russia. Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia and Iran have improved defence and strategic ties, even as Russia has sought to salvage its deteriorating political relationship with Israel. Iran has become as a major provider of drones to the Russian war effort, including helping set up drone manufacturing plants inside Russia for building modified versions of the Shahed-2 drone that has been deployed on battlefields extensively during the war.

The Iranians are now reportedly calling in a favor for this wartime assistance.

Following a visit by former Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu to Tehran this week, Iranian officials reported that Russia had begun transferring advanced air defence systems to Iran. While the extent of the weapons transfers is not known, reducing vulnerability to Israeli air strikes has long been a priority of Iranian strategic planners and the presence of more advanced Russian equipment would complicate any Israeli air campaign targeting Iran.

According to reports in the Israeli press and open-source intelligence analysts, Russian arms transfers to Iran recently have also included advanced electronic warfare systems. These systems are now said to be set up at sites throughout Iran and are aimed at jamming signals and communications of Israeli aircraft attempting to attack Iranian targets.

The ramping up of preparations and threats on both sides indicate that some type of confrontation is now inevitable. Yet despite promising to exact a cost in blood after being humiliated by Israel's attack in Tehran, Iranian leaders will still attempt to calibrate their retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh in a way that avoids triggering a full-blown war.

Whether they can accomplish such a balancing act is another question, upon which the future of the entire region may rest.

"The Iranians now believe that Israel will continue attacking it unless it is either deterred or restrained. Because they see no sign that America will restrain Israel, now they are going to aim to deter it themselves,” said Parsi. "They have made it quite clear that this attack will be different than April in both scope and method. The April attacks were designed to show force, but not to cause casualties. This time they are talking about blood for blood."